Compound Poisson Approximation of the Number of Exceedances in Gaussian Sequences

Consider a finite sequence of Gaussian random variables. Count the number of exceedances of some level a, i.e. the number of values exceeding the level. Let this level and the length of the sequence increase simultaneously so that the expected number of exceedances remains fixed. It is well-known that if the long-range dependence is not too strong, the number of exceeding points converges in distribution to a Poisson distribution. However, for sequences with some individual large correlations, the Poisson convergence is slow due to clumping. Using Stein’s method we show that, at least for m-dependent sequences, the rate of convergence is improved by using compound Poisson as approximating distribution. An explicit bound for the convergence rate is derived for the compound Poisson approximation, and also for a subclass of the compound Poisson distribution, where only clumps of size two are considered. Results from numerical calculations and simulations are also presented.