Assessing the impact of temperature on malaria transmission dynamics

A mathematical model to assess the impact of temperature on malaria transmission dynamics is explored and analysed. Threshold quantities of the model are determined and analysed. The model is shown to exhibit backward bifurcation. Analysis of the reproduction number suggests that increase in temperature to about ∘C has the potential to increase the epidemic. The burden of the disease increases with increase in temperature with an optimal temperature window of 30–32∘C for malaria transmission. However as temperatures approach 40∘C, infected human and mosquito populations decline to asymptotically low levels. © 2013, African Mathematical Union and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.