Could China’s long-term low-carbon energy transformation achieve the double dividend effect for the economy and environment?

Exploring the low-carbon energy transformation pathway is vital to coordinate economic growth and environmental improvement for achieving China’s carbon peak target. Three energy-target scenarios are developed in this paper, considering the targets of energy structure, electrification rate, and carbon mitigation towards 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. It detects that China’s energy structure would substantially transfer to the low-carbon and clean one, whereas CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions in 2020–2030 would vastly abate along with all three energy-target scenarios. Different pathways would produce varying positive impacts on China’s macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. It is highly conceivable for China to peak its carbon emission at 12.4 GtCO2 by 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways.