Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

被引:1
|
作者
Mansour Almazroui
M. Nazrul Islam
Fahad Saeed
Sajjad Saeed
Muhammad Ismail
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan
Ismaila Diallo
Enda O’Brien
Moetasim Ashfaq
Daniel Martínez-Castro
Tereza Cavazos
Ruth Cerezo-Mota
Michael K. Tippett
William J. Gutowski
Eric J. Alfaro
Hugo G. Hidalgo
Alejandro Vichot-Llano
Jayaka D. Campbell
Shahzad Kamil
Irfan Ur Rashid
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla
Tannecia Stephenson
Michael Taylor
Mathew Barlow
机构
[1] King Abdulaziz University,Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology
[2] Climate Analytics,Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
[3] The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics,International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
[4] KU Leuven,Department of Geography
[5] Earth Institute At Columbia University,Departamento de Oceanografia Fisica
[6] University of California,Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería
[7] Los Angeles,Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics
[8] Oak Ridge National Laboratory,Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
[9] Center for Atmospheric Physics,Center for Geophysical Research, School of Physics and Center for Research in Marine Sciences and Limnology
[10] Institute of Meteorology,Center for Geophysical Research and School of Physics
[11] Geophysical Institute of Peru,Department of Physics
[12] CICESE,Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
[13] Nacional Autónoma de México,undefined
[14] Columbia University,undefined
[15] Iowa State University,undefined
[16] University of Costa Rica,undefined
[17] University of Costa Rica,undefined
[18] University of the West Indies,undefined
[19] Climate Change Impact and Integration Cell (CIIC),undefined
[20] Pakistan Meteorological Department,undefined
[21] African Institute for Mathematical Sciences,undefined
[22] University of Massachusetts Lowell,undefined
来源
Earth Systems and Environment | 2021年 / 5卷
关键词
Climate change; CMIP6; Temperature; Precipitation; United States; Central America; Caribbean;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.
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页码:1 / 24
页数:23
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