Rural–urban disparities in spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability to climate change: a study of Madhya Pradesh, India

This paper aims to assess the disparities in vulnerability to climate change among the rural and urban population by taking the case of Madhya Pradesh, the central state of India. Madhya Pradesh is highly exposed to climate change, as evident by the historical and projected changes in climatic parameters. The impacts of climate change vary as per the dependence of the population on natural resource-intensive sectors and the relative socioeconomic development. The higher disparities in population composition, livelihood, infrastructural access, and other socioeconomic characteristics among rural and urban populations can influence their relative vulnerability to climate change. In this context, this study tries to understand how the spatiotemporal pattern of vulnerability to climate change differs in the rural and urban areas in three decades (1991, 2001 and 2011), using two sub-indices viz. Composite Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) and Climate Index (CI). The CSVI is a weighted average of the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Infrastructural Vulnerability Index. The CSVI is a weighted average of the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Infrastructural Vulnerability Index. The results indicate that rural areas possess more social vulnerability than urban areas and, thus, are more vulnerable to climate change. CSVI scores and score of its subindices have reduced over time for both rural and urban population. However, the overall climate vulnerability has slightly increased from 2001 to 2011 due to the increase in mean CI in 2011. The study points out more targeted interventions for livelihood diversification, education, and infrastructural facilities in rural areas, especially in tribal dominated districts, in the context of increased climate change exposure in recent decades.