Restoration, reformation, or revolution? Blueprints for the world order after the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Though the Russian–Ukrainian conflict and the more comprehensive standoff between Russia and the West are far from over, there is already much speculation about how these dramatic developments might affect international strategic stability, major institutions of global governance, and the existing Euro-Atlantic and world orders. The author offers three scenarios for the post-crisis transformation of the international system, which can be arbitrary defined as “restoration,” “reformation,” and “revolution.” The article outlines what these scenarios might mean for the settlement of the crisis around Ukraine, for the future of European security, for Western approaches to Russia and China, and for the evolving North–South dimension of global politics. The likelihood of each scenario is debatable, as is the sustainability of the international system described in any of the three outlined trajectories. The three scenarios may be considered not necessarily as alternatives, but as sequential stages of system transformation—an incomplete “restoration” might ultimately lead to a “reformation,” while a failed “reformation” might result in a “revolution.” The author concludes that the “reformation” scenario would be the least dangerous and most acceptable option to major international players and the most conducive to the stability of the international system at large. © 2023, The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University.