Will natura 2000 european network of protected areas support conservation of Southwestern Alps endemic flora under future climate?

Networks of protected areas (PAs) are globally recognized as playing a key role for in situ conservation of species. Despite a high potential for biodiversity conservation, PAs may not mitigate the current biodiversity loss because they do not consider climate change impact. In fact, because PAs have static geographical boundaries, they may hardly keep pace with dynamics in species distribution caused by the climate change, which was not considered when they were designed. In this study, we used species distribution modelling of 85 plant taxa endemic or subendemic to Southwestern Alps to evaluate the effectiveness of PAs network in protecting endemics under future climate change scenarios. PAs cover roughly the 30% of the Southwestern Alps. PAs will harbour more expected distribution range of taxa in the future than today, probably because they occur in high altitude areas rich in endemics that have been climatically stable areas in the past and that will likely remain relatively climatically buffered in the future. Moreover, PAs are distributed to poorly cover expected range of endemics at low and middle elevation, which are threatened by urbanization and climate change. We recommend additional protection at low and middle elevation, considering the future climatic suitability of species.