Forecasting olive (Olea europaea) crop production by monitoring airborne pollen

Forecasting harvests of olives destined for the production of olive oil can be based on counts of airborne olive pollen, and meteorological and agronomic observations. This study was carried out during six consecutive years (1990–1995) in the Campiña Alta (an olive-producing region in the province of Córdoba, south-west Spain). Olive pollen totals are the annual sum of the concentrations recorded for the periods that the filters of a Cour trap were exposed. The meteorological data are the values of accumulated rainfall between 1 September and the following 15 April (a date prior to the beginning of olive flowering). The agronomic data are the forecast and actual productions for the province of Córdoba, supplied by the Board of Agriculture of the Andalusian government, and the actual production of the Campiña Alta, supplied at the end of harvest by private olive-growing co-operatives. The data were combined, and four mathematical equations were obtained to forecast the crop 6 months in advance, with varying degrees of reliability. The reliability was very high for an appropriate agricultural area. The most accurate equation isY=−1.90×104+2.35X+53.94 (which forecasts the production of the Campiña Alta), whereY is the olive production (MT),X the olive pollen count,Z the rainfall prior to flowering, anda, b andc are constants. The least accurate equation is that relating olive pollen concentrations with olive production in the province of Córdoba.