Alcohol use and perceived drinking risk trajectories across adolescence: the role of alcohol expectancies

The current longitudinal study tested pathways between alcohol expectancies at baseline and both perceived drinking risk and alcohol use trajectories over a five-year period through adolescence. An adolescent community sample (N = 243; Wave 1 demographics: 45% female, 51% non-white, 49% white, mean age = 13.06 years) completed self-report questionnaires annually for five years. Measures included the Alcohol Expectancy Questionnaire – Adolescent Brief Version, one Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) item assessing annual perceived drinking risk, an adapted item from the YRBS assessing annual alcohol use, the Revised Children’s Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the Disruptive Behavior Disorders Rating Scale. We specified dual latent growth curves to estimate trajectories of change in perceived drinking risk and alcohol use over time. Alcohol use significantly increased, while perceived drinking risk significantly decreased. More positive alcohol expectancies at baseline predicted a less steep decline in perceived drinking risk (β = 0.31, p = .009), whereas more negative expectancies at baseline predicted a steeper decline in perceived risk (β = −0.26, p = .03). Alcohol expectancies did not directly predict alcohol use, but instead operated indirectly via the starting point of the perceived drinking risk trajectory. Specifically, greater positive expectancies (B = -0.19, p < .001) and lower negative expectancies (B = 0.17, p = 0.006) predicted a lower risk perception trajectory starting point, which then predicted a greater alcohol use trajectory starting point (B = -1.41, p < .001). Findings underscore the starting point of perceived drinking risk trajectories as one factor linking alcohol expectancies and alcohol use. Prevention efforts aimed at shifting these starting points and altering early cognitive factors may be appropriate targets for minimizing alcohol use risk.