A comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam failure using improved matter element analysis

Although an accidental dam failure has a low probability of occurring, the damage such an event can cause is almost incalculable. It is therefore particularly important to accurately predict losses caused by dam failure. Simulation of flood routing is one approach to analysis of the consequences of dam failure but its usefulness is limited by lack of comprehensive data. Creating a single mathematical model is another approach, but such a model cannot take account of the various uncertainties inherent in a dam failure. Matter element analysis is effective in dealing with factors that are incommensurable, but it does not consider the combined effects of factors that are subject to uncertainty and so produces results that may be inadequate. To address this problem, this paper introduced the eigenvalues of a cloud model (expectation Ex, entropy En and hyperentropy He) and combined the cloud model with matter element analysis in an improved model. The improved matter element analysis model produced a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam failure by creating a set of evaluation indexes in which life loss, economic loss, and the environmental impact of dam failure were treated as direct losses and societal impact were treated as an indirect loss. Changlong Reservoir provided an illustrative case study to show that the proposed model was able to reliably predict the consequences of dam failure. This model provides a promising solution to risk management of dams.