Abnormal Wind Waves in the Arctic: Probability of Occurrence and Spatial Distribution

The estimates of the height and length of surface waves generated by polar lows in the Barents Sea and in the eastern Norwegian Sea are presented. The calculations are based on the parametric model of wave generation by a moving cyclone [9]. The simulations of wave fields are performed for the spatiotemporal characteristics of polar lows provided in [14]. The highest amplitude waves are generated in the right sector of the moving polar low, and if the condition of the “group resonance” is met, the wave height and wavelength become abnormally high. It is shown that a significant part of polar lows satisfy the resonance condition, thus, the account of their movement is required to estimate the height of generated waves. The model simulations revealed that the frequency of occurrence of waves with the height of >4 m is 3–5 events per year, the frequency of occurrence of waves with the height of 8 m is one event per year, and the number of cases with the wave height of >12 and >15 m is one–two per 10 and 20 years, respectively.