Spatio-temporal analysis of land use/land cover pattern changes in Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve: Iran

Main global environment and ecological functions and structure affected by land use/cover changes (LUCC). Analysis of the dynamic LUCC can be very useful in biosphere reserves (BRs) management. The Land use and cover (LULC) spatio-temporal changes in the Arasbaran BR were classified (as Agricultural, Forest and Barren/Range lands), and compared with future spatial pattern (simulated using the CA-Markov model) to evaluate qualitative and quantitative changes of this BR LULC over time (1989, 2000 and 2013 with 2037). This analysis consisted of the whole area and also in respect to each of the zones within the Arasbaran BR (as a new approach to assess BR management quality). Based on this approach, the LUCC monitoring alongside the future simulation offers an early warning system that also shows us trends and consequences of the changes for the whole BR as well as for each zone (including the core zone) of BR separately. The results show a downward trend for forestland at the expense of increasing agricultural and barren/range land surface areas. Furthermore this loss of remnant forest vegetation is not only true for the whole BR (; including its buffer and transitional zones) but is happening within the core zone where it will probably continue more severely in the near future. The results demonstrate the priority need for more severe regulations regarding protection of this BR against LUCCs and for its valuable core zone forest LULC in particular. © 2016, Springer International Publishing Switzerland.