Analysis of spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of transportation carbon emission efficiency from a provincial perspective in China

Globally, the transportation industry has become one of the leading sectors in carbon emission, and all countries are committed to environmental protection and energy conservation while experiencing rapid development. Under China’s “dual-carbon” goal, the carbon emission problem hinders the construction of China’s green transportation system and affects the high-quality development of transportation, so it is of great significance to study the spatial pattern of carbon emission efficiency in the transportation industry and the factors affecting it. Firstly, this paper measures the carbon emission value of transportation in 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 based on the IPCC method and measures the carbon emission efficiency through the super-efficiency slack-based measurement model. Secondly, spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to determine the spatial clustering characteristics of the efficiency values. Finally, two spatial Durbin models are constructed to measure the spatial spillover effects and analyze the short-term immediate effects of each influencing factor on the static model and the long-term effects of the dynamic model considering the time lag of the transportation carbon emission efficiency. The results of the study show that (1) the average value of efficiency in the central and eastern regions is basically higher than 0.5; in the western and northeastern regions, it is basically lower than 0.3.The overall efficiency of carbon emission in the region shows a fluctuating upward trend but with increasing regional differences. (2) The number of regions with positive spatial correlation increased from 21 to 25 during the study period, and the degree of provincial transportation carbon emission efficiency agglomeration increased. (3) Although urbanization and energy intensity have a large detrimental influence on transportation carbon emission efficiency, environmental regulation has a major favorable effects on it both long and short term. Population scale, opening level, and urbanization all have significant spatial spillover effects. Accordingly, relevant policy recommendations are put forward to provide theoretical guidance for promoting the realization of low-carbon transportation.