Prediction of soil erosion and sediment yield in an ungauged basin based on land use land cover changes

Soil erosion is a significant problem in the agriculture sector and the environment globally. Susceptible soil erosion zones must be identified and erosion rates evaluated to decrease land degradation problems and increase crop productivity by protecting soil fertility. Therefore, a research study has been carried out in the Ponnaniyar River basin, an ungauged tributary of the Cauvery basin in India, primarily used for agriculture. The main purpose of this study is to assess soil erosion (SE) and sediment yield (SY) for the future in an ungauged basin by utilizing the projected land use/land cover (LULC) map of the study area. Additionally, Landsat 8 satellite dataset was only used for the classification and prediction of LULC to eliminate the variation between the resolution, bands and its wavelength of different satellites datasets. To achieve the goals of this study, three phases were followed. First, the LULC of the study area was classified using a Random Trees Classifier (RTC), a machine learning technique, followed by the projection of land cover using a Cellular Automata-based Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model. The driving factors for this model include digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance to roads, settlements, and water bodies. The accuracy level of the projected LULC map was determined by comparing it with the classified LULC map of the study area, and the results showed an overall accuracy (OA) of 85.35 percentage and a kappa coefficient (K) of 0.74, respectively. Second, the projected LULC map was used in the land management factor (C) and conversation practice factor (P) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model to assess soil erosion. The model was integrated with the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) to estimate sediment yield within the study area. The accuracy of the generated erosion map based on the classified and projected LULC for the year 2022 was determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve, and it was found to be in satisfactory agreement. Finally, for effective soil and water conservation measures, the basin was divided into 13 sub-watersheds (SWs) using terrain analysis in geographical information system (GIS). The SWs were prioritized based on the mean soil loss in the 4-year interval from 2014 to 2030 and integrated using the weighted average method to determine the final prioritization. From these findings, SW 11, SW 9, SW 12, and SW 1 are extremely affected by soil erosion, and immediate implementation of water harvesting structures is required for soil conservation. Also, this research might be useful for decision-makers and policymakers in land management.