Interannual variability and predictability of sea level along the Indian Coast

被引:0
|
作者
O. P. Singh
机构
[1]  SAARC Meteorological Research Centre,
[2] Dhaka,undefined
[3] Bangladesh,undefined
来源
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 2002年 / 72卷
关键词
Tropical Cyclone; Interannual Variability; Monsoon Rainfall; Southwest Monsoon; Southern Oscillation Index;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
The Indian coast stretching more than 7,500 km constitutes the major portion of the South Asian coastline in the North Indian Ocean region. The South Asian region is significantly influenced by meteorological/oceanographic phenomena like monsoons, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Direct/indirect impacts of these phenomena, which exhibit large interannual variabilities, on sea level changes in this region are considerable. Our results show that the mean sea level along the eastern coast of India, which is highly vulnerable to the incidence of severe tropical cyclones, is considerably higher than normal during the intense cyclonic period of a year falling in the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (La Niña epoch), thereby enhancing the hazardous potential of tropical cyclones. Further, in the closing phase of the La Niña southwest monsoon, higher sea level anomalies prevail along the Indian coast raising the flooding potential of such monsoons. Over the west coast of India significant simultaneous correlations have been found between the amount of southwest monsoon rainfall and the mean sea level during the period from June to September. Over the east coast of India at Visakhapatnam, mean sea level is predictable with a fair degree of confidence one month in advance, by using the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as predictors. These results will be useful in the annual preparedness programmes aimed at mitigating the impacts of natural disasters like tropical cyclones and floods in the South Asian region.
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页码:11 / 28
页数:17
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