Optimal distribution of vaccines to achieve high population immunity levels is a desirable aim in infectious disease epidemiology. A distributed optimal control epidemiological model that accounts for vaccination was developed and applied to the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model proposed here is nonstandard and takes into account the heterogeneity of the infected sub-population with respect to the time since infection, which is essential in the case of COVID-19. Based on the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 we analyze several vaccination scenarios and an optimal vaccination policy. In particular we consider random vaccination over the whole population and the prioritization of age groups such as the elderly and compare the effects with the optimal solution. Numerical results of the model show that random vaccination is efficient in reducing the overall number of infected individuals. Prioritization of the elderly leads to lower mortality though. The optimal strategy in terms of total deaths is early prioritization of those groups having the highest contact rates.
机构:
Danube Univ Krems, Dept Econ & Hlth, A-3500 Krems An Der Donau, Austria
Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, A-1040 Vienna, AustriaDanube Univ Krems, Dept Econ & Hlth, A-3500 Krems An Der Donau, Austria
Kovacevic, Raimund M.
Stilianakis, Nikolaos, I
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Joint Res Ctr JRC, European Commiss, I-21027 Ispra, Italy
Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Dept Biometry & Epidemiol, D-91054 Erlangen, GermanyDanube Univ Krems, Dept Econ & Hlth, A-3500 Krems An Der Donau, Austria
Stilianakis, Nikolaos, I
Veliov, Vladimir M.
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Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, A-1040 Vienna, AustriaDanube Univ Krems, Dept Econ & Hlth, A-3500 Krems An Der Donau, Austria
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Univ Rey Juan Carlos, Sch Telecommun Engn, Campus Fuenlabrada, Madrid 28942, SpainUniv Rey Juan Carlos, Sch Telecommun Engn, Campus Fuenlabrada, Madrid 28942, Spain
Olivares, Alberto
Staffetti, Ernesto
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Univ Rey Juan Carlos, Sch Telecommun Engn, Campus Fuenlabrada, Madrid 28942, SpainUniv Rey Juan Carlos, Sch Telecommun Engn, Campus Fuenlabrada, Madrid 28942, Spain
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Univ Mohammed V Rabat, Fac Sci, Unite Rech labellisee CNRST, Lab Matiere Condensee Sci Interdisciplinaires LaMC, BP 1014, Rabat, MoroccoUniv Mohammed V Rabat, Fac Sci, Unite Rech labellisee CNRST, Lab Matiere Condensee Sci Interdisciplinaires LaMC, BP 1014, Rabat, Morocco
Ghazal, Ikram
Rachadi, Abdeljalil
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Univ Mohammed V Rabat, Fac Sci, Unite Rech labellisee CNRST, Lab Matiere Condensee Sci Interdisciplinaires LaMC, BP 1014, Rabat, MoroccoUniv Mohammed V Rabat, Fac Sci, Unite Rech labellisee CNRST, Lab Matiere Condensee Sci Interdisciplinaires LaMC, BP 1014, Rabat, Morocco
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SRM Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Ramapuram Campus, Chennai 600089, Tamil Nadu, IndiaSRM Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Ramapuram Campus, Chennai 600089, Tamil Nadu, India
Swetha, S.
Devi, S. Sindu
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SRM Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Ramapuram Campus, Chennai 600089, Tamil Nadu, IndiaSRM Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Ramapuram Campus, Chennai 600089, Tamil Nadu, India
Devi, S. Sindu
Kannan, K.
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SASTRA Deemed Be Univ, Srinivasa Ramanujan Ctr, Dept Math, Kumbakonam 612001, Tamil Nadu, IndiaSRM Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Ramapuram Campus, Chennai 600089, Tamil Nadu, India
机构:
Escuela Poliécnica Superior, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/ Tomás y Valiente, 11, MadridEscuela Poliécnica Superior, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/ Tomás y Valiente, 11, Madrid
Santini S.
ACM Transactions on Computing for Healthcare,
2021,
2
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