Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Risk in Entre Ríos, Argentina

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a severe emerging endemic disease of the Americas. Because hantavirus reservoirs are sylvatic rodents, HPS risk has been associated with occupational and recreational activities in natural and rural environments. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of HPS in an endemic province of Argentina. For this, we explored the relationship between HPS cases occurring in Entre Ríos province between 2004 and 2015 and climate, vegetation, landscape, reservoir population, and rodent community characteristics by means of generalized linear models. We modeled HPS occurrence at each site, and both the incidence and number of cases grouped by department. The resulting best model of each analysis was applied in a GIS to build HPS risk maps. Risk of occurrence of HPS increased with tree cover and decreased with distance to rivers. We identified the south of Entre Ríos as the area with higher HPS risk, and therefore, where HPS prevention measures should be more urgently applied. Risk maps based on data available in the public domain are a useful tool that should be used by decision makers to concentrate surveillance and control efforts in those areas with highest HPS risk.