Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on thyroid cancer risk among cleanup workers in Ukraine exposed due to the Chornobyl accident

A large excess risk of thyroid cancer was observed among Belarusian/Russian/Baltic Chornobyl cleanup workers. A more recent study of Ukraine cleanup workers found more modest excess risks of thyroid cancer. Dose errors in this data are substantial, associated with model uncertainties and questionnaire response. Regression calibration is often used for dose-error adjustment, but may not adequately account for the full error distribution. We aimed to examine the impact of exposure-assessment uncertainties on thyroid cancer among Ukrainian cleanup workers using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and compare with results derived using regression calibration. Analyses assessed the sensitivity of results to various components of internal and external dose. Regression calibration yielded an excess odds ratio per Gy (EOR/Gy) of 0.437 (95% CI − 0.042, 1.577, p = 0.100), compared with the EOR/Gy using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood of 0.517 (95% CI − 0.039, 2.035, p = 0.093). Trend risk estimates for follicular morphology tumors exhibited much more extreme effects of full-likelihood adjustment, the EOR/Gy using regression calibration of 3.224 (95% CI − 0.082, 30.615, p = 0.068) becoming ~ 50% larger, 4.708 (95% CI − 0.075, 85.143, p = 0.066) when using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Results were sensitive to omission of external components of dose. In summary, use of Monte Carlo maximum likelihood adjustment for dose error led to increases in trend risks, particularly for follicular morphology thyroid cancers, where risks increased by ~ 50%, and were borderline significant. The unexpected finding for follicular tumors needs to be replicated in other exposed groups.