A note on fiducial model averaging as an alternative to checking Bayesian and frequentist models

被引:7
作者
Bickel, David R. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Ottawa, Ottawa Inst Syst Biol, Dept Math & Stat, Dept Biochem Microbiol & Immunol, 451 Smyth Rd, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Bayesian model averaging; coherent fiducial distribution; confidence distribution; distributional inference; fiducial inference; frequentist model averaging; model assessment; model checking; model criticism; posterior predictive check; prior predictive check; prior-data conflict; STATISTICAL-INFERENCE; P-VALUES; CONFIDENCE CURVES; DATA CONFLICT; LIKELIHOOD; FRAMEWORK;
D O I
10.1080/03610926.2017.1348522
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Just as frequentist hypothesis tests have been developed to check model assumptions, prior predictive p-values and other Bayesian p-values check prior distributions as well as other model assumptions. These model checks not only suffer from the usual threshold dependence of p-values, but also from the suppression of model uncertainty in subsequent inference. One solution is to transform Bayesian and frequentist p-values for model assessment into a fiducial distribution across the models. Averaging the Bayesian or frequentist posterior distributions with respect to the fiducial distribution can reproduce results from Bayesian model averaging or classical fiducial inference.
引用
收藏
页码:3125 / 3137
页数:13
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