Reliability Assessment of Shallow Foundation Stability Under Eccentric Load Using Monte Carlo and First Order Second Moment Method

An analytical model defining soil-foundation probability of failure with respect to total system stability was developed in the present study. Soil geotechnical properties of the internal friction angle, unit weight, cohesion strength and modulus of elasticity are considered as random variables and the reliability analysis of the system was calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Another estimation model of the First Order Second Moment method is applied and the obtained results were compared. The proposed methodology was illustrated through a case example, in order to identify the critical failure modes and the dependency among them. The influences of the probability distribution function of random variables, loading conditions and parameters sensitivity analysis on the probability of failure were explored. Furthermore, the effects of different building code regulations and disparate limiting values of structural deformations and movements for Iran National Building Regulations and European Standard- EuroCode7 were analyzed and compared.