On the fractional SIRD mathematical model and control for the transmission of COVID-19: The first and the second waves of the disease in Iran and Japan

被引：41

作者：

Mohammadi, Hakimeh ^{[1
]}

Rezapour, Shahram ^{[2
,3
]}

Jajarmi, Amin ^{[4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Math, Miandoab Branch, Miandoab, Iran

[2] Azarbaijan Shahid Madani Univ, Dept Math, Tabriz, Iran

[3] China Med Univ, China Med Univ Hosp, Dept Med Res, Taichung, Taiwan

[4] Univ Bojnord, Dept Elect Engn, POB 94531-1339, Bojnord, Iran

[5] Near East Univ TRNC, Dept Math, Mersin 10, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus, Turkey

来源：

ISA TRANSACTIONS | 2022年 / 124卷

关键词：

COVID-19; Fractional SIRD model; Optimal control; Prediction; Reproduction number; NUMERICAL TECHNIQUE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.isatra.2021.04.012

中图分类号：

TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];

学科分类号：

0812 ;

摘要：

In this paper, a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model is presented with Caputo derivative for the transmission of COVID-19 between humans. We calculate the steady-states of the system and discuss their stability. We also discuss the existence and uniqueness of a non-negative solution for the system under study. Additionally, we obtain an approximate response by implementing the fractional Euler method. Next, we investigate the first and the second waves of the disease in Iran and Japan; then we give a prediction concerning the second wave of the disease. We display the numerical simulations for different derivative orders in order to evaluate the efficacy of the fractional concept on the system behaviors. We also calculate the optimal control of the system and display its numerical simulations. (C) 2021 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：103 / 114

页数：12

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