A modified grey forecasting model for long-term prediction

被引：15

作者：

Hsu, CC ^{[1
]}

Chen, CY ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Cheng Kung Univ, Dept Resources Engn, Tainan 701, Taiwan

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE CHINESE INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERS | 2003年 / 26卷 / 03期

关键词：

grey theory; modified GM(1,1) model; long-term forecasting;

D O I：

10.1080/02533839.2003.9670782

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

Grey theory is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems which are characterized by poor information and/or for which information is lacking. In this paper, a modified grey model, combined with a simple statistical method to determine the model coefficient and a sectional model, by using another variable to modify the original grey prediction model for long-term forecasting, is proposed. This new method not only can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but also can make it suitable for long-term forecasting. Finally, we use power demand forecasting in Taiwan for our case study to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

引用

页码：301 / 308

页数：8

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