Predicting Child Abuse Potential: An Empirical Investigation of Two Theoretical Frameworks

This study investigated two theoretical risk models predicting child maltreatment potential: (a) Belsky's (1993) developmental-ecological model and (b) the cumulative risk model in a sample of 610 caregivers (49% African American, 46% European American; 53% single) with a child between 3 and 6 years old. Results extend the literature by using a widely accepted and valid risk instrument rather than occurrence rates (e. g., reports to child protective services, observations). Results indicated Belsky's developmental-ecological model, in which risk markers were organized into three separate conceptual domains, provided a poor fit to the data. In contrast, the cumulative risk model, which included the accumulation of risk markers, was significant in predicting child abuse potential.