Comparison between two methods of defining heat waves: A retrospective study in Castile-La Mancha (Spain)

被引:44
作者
Montero, J. C. [1 ]
Miron, I. J. [2 ]
Criado, J. J. [3 ]
Linares, C. [4 ]
Diaz, J. [5 ]
机构
[1] Castile La Mancha Reg Hlth & Social Welf Author, Hlth Sci Inst, Talavera De La Reina, Toledo, Spain
[2] Castile La Mancha Reg Hlth & Social Welf Author, Torrijos Hlth Dist, Torrijos, Toledo, Spain
[3] Castille La Mancha Hlth Serv, Talavera De La Reina, Toledo, Spain
[4] Carlos III Inst Hlth, Natl Ctr Epidemiol, Madrid, Spain
[5] Carlos III Inst Hlth, Natl Sch Publ Hlth, Madrid, Spain
关键词
Heat wave; Prevention plans; Climate change; Mortality; AUGUST; 2003; MORTALITY; TEMPERATURES; HEALTH; IMPACT; CLIMATE; CITIES; TRENDS;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.01.013
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Introduction: Following the 2003 heat wave, many European countries implemented heat-wave prevention plans. A number of aspects can prove fundamental in determining the effectiveness of such plans, and of these we sought to analyse the criteria used to define threshold temperatures and trigger a higher level of intervention. Method: Retrospective study of the days on which heat-wave thresholds were exceeded during the period 1974-2003 was conducted. We compared when and at what level the heat-wave prevention plan would have been activated using a statistical-meteorological criterion (as applied by the Spanish Ministry of Health & Consumer Affairs) versus a temperature-mortality criterion. Results: The number of days on which the threshold was exceeded was far higher when the temperature-mortality criterion was applied. The temperature percentile at which a heat wave occurred was different for each province analysed and was inversely proportional to its respective ageing index. Using both criteria, there was an increase in heat-wave days per decade. Conclusion: The establishment of a heat-wave threshold temperature must be based on knowledge of the cause-effect relationship between temperature and the health of a given population. Mortality is an appropriate indicator of population health. The future effects of climate change render it essential for this relationship to be studied on a local scale, so as to enable truly efficient prevention plans to be drawn up. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1544 / 1550
页数:7
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