Crop yield response to economic, site and climatic variables

被引:118
作者
Cabas, Juan [1 ]
Weersink, Alfons [1 ]
Olale, Edward [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Guelph, Dept Food Agr & Resource Econ, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
关键词
CORN YIELD; US; VARIABILITY; MODELS; IMPACT; CO2;
D O I
10.1007/s10584-009-9754-4
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This paper examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on the mean and variance of corn, soybean and winter wheat yield in southwestern Ontario, Canada over a period of 26 years. Average crop yields increase at a decreasing rate with the quantity of inputs used, and decrease with the area planted to the crop. Climate variables have a major impact on mean yield with the length of the growing season being the primary determinant across all three crops. Increases in the variability of temperature and precipitation decrease mean yield and increase its variance. Yield variance is poorly explained by both seasonal and monthly climate variable models. Projections of future climate change suggest that average crop yield will increase with warmer temperatures and a longer growing season which is only partially offset by forecast increases in the variability of temperature and rainfall. The projections would also depend on future technological developments, which have generated significant increases in yield over time despite changing annual weather conditions.
引用
收藏
页码:599 / 616
页数:18
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