Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change

被引:243
|
作者
Andrews, Timothy [1 ]
Forster, Piers M. [1 ]
Boucher, Olivier [2 ]
Bellouin, Nicolas [2 ]
Jones, Andy [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
关键词
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PART I; ADJUSTMENT; ATMOSPHERE; MODELS;
D O I
10.1029/2010GL043991
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, similar to 2-3% per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change. Citation: Andrews, T., P. M. Forster, O. Boucher, N. Bellouin, and A. Jones (2010), Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043991.
引用
收藏
页数:6
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