Can patient-specific finite element models better predict fractures in metastatic bone disease than experienced clinicians?

Objectives In this prospective cohort study, we investigated whether patient-specific finite element (FE) models can identify patients at risk of a pathological femoral fracture resulting from metastatic bone disease, and compared these FE predictions with clinical assessments by experienced clinicians. Methods A total of 39 patients with non-fractured femoral metastatic lesions who were irradiated for pain were included from three radiotherapy institutes. During follow-up, nine pathological fractures occurred in seven patients. Quantitative CT-based FE models were generated for all patients. Femoral failure load was calculated and compared between the fractured and non-fractured femurs. Due to inter-scanner differences, patients were analyzed separatelyfor the three institutes. In addition, the FE-based predictions were compared with fracture risk assessments by experienced clinicians. Results In institute 1, median failure load was significantly lower for patients who sustained a fracture than for patients with no fractures. In institutes 2 and 3, the number of patients with a fracture was too low to make a clear distinction. Fracture locations were well predicted by the FE model when compared with post-fracture radiographs. The FE model was more accurate in identifying patients with a high fracture risk compared with experienced clinicians, with a sensitivity of 89% versus 0% to 33% for clinical assessments. Specificity was 79% for the FE models versus 84% to 95% for clinical assessments. Conclusion FE models can be a valuable tool to improve clinical fracture risk predictions in metastatic bone disease. Future work in a larger patient population should confirm the higher predictive power of FE models compared with current clinical guidelines.