Predictive Factors of Recurrence in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma: A Retrospective Analysis on 579 Patients

Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is usually associated with a favorable prognosis. Nevertheless, up to 30% of patients present a local or distant recurrence. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of recurrence after surgery for DTC and to identify predictive factors of recurrence. We included in this retrospective study 579 consecutive patients who underwent thyroidectomy for DTC from 2011 to 2016 at our institution. We observed biochemical or structural recurrent disease in 36 (6.2%) patients; five-year disease-free survival was 94.1%. On univariate analysis, male sex, histotype, lymph node yield, lymph node metastasis, extrathyroidal invasion and multicentricity were associated with significantly higher risk of recurrence, while microcarcinoma was correlated with significantly lower risk of recurrence. On multivariate analysis, only lymph node metastases (OR 4.724, p = 0.012) and microcarcinoma (OR 0.328, p = 0.034) were detected as independent predictive factors of recurrence. Postoperative management should be individualized and commensurate with the risk of recurrence: Patients with high-risk carcinoma should undergo strict follow-up and aggressive treatment. Furthermore, assessment of the risk should be repeated over time, considering individual response to therapy.