Patient death or renal graft loss within 3 yr of transplantation in a county hospital: importance of poor initial graft function

Our purpose was to study the factors predictive of graft loss or patient death within 3 yr of renal transplant in a county population. 363 renal transplants performed between 1984 and 1991 at the Harbor-UCLA Medical Center were reviewed. There were 16 recipients (4%) who died and 76 (21%) who lost their grafts within 3 yr. Known causes of death were cardiac (44%), infection (38%) and malignancy (6%). There was a higher proportion of diabetics (44%), hypertensives (69%) and those with a past cardiac history (38%). Then was also a high delayed graft function rate (56%). Of the 76 grafts that failed in the first 3 yr, 14% were due to noncompliance, 20% to grafts that never functioned, 9% to technical problems, 21% to acute rejection, 9% to recurrent disease and 26% to chronic rejection. The noncompliance group were younger (mean 34 pr), and more likely to be a first transplant (90%) and be non-white (82%). The rejection group was significant for high delayed graft function rate (84%) and frequent and early rejection (76% at least one rejection). We conclude that fair organ allocation requires a balance between equity and utility, but patient death or graft loss within 3 yr benefits neither the patient or society. Patient survival may be improved with diligent cardiac evaluation, particularly in older patients and diabetics. Patient education and monitoring for noncompliance is essential, particularly in young first-time recipients. Maneuvers to decrease delayed graft function are essential to improve long-term results.