The determinants of world wheat trade, 1963-2010: A gravity equation approach

The international configuration of the world wheat trade has undergone significant transformations over the past fifty years. The volume of total wheat trade has increased fivefold, new exporting leaders have appeared and a large import market has emerged in less developed countries. The aim of this paper is to identify the main drivers of those changing patterns. For that purpose, we estimated a gravity equation based on data for bilateral trade flows. Information on the wheat trade was obtained from the UN-COMTRADE database (2014). We also accessed other sources to include explanatory variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) of the exporting and importing countries, GDP per capita, wheat production, different measures of cultural distance and proximity, current trade agreements, etc. The results are discussed and interpreted using a cliometric approach.