Predictors of Nursing Home Admission Among a Cohort of Homeless Older Adults Entering Emergency Shelter

Objective: This study examined the extent and timing of nursing home admissions among older adults who had their first visit at an emergency shelter or re-entered after an extended absence. We assessed the relationships between demographic characteristics, health and behavioral health conditions, and health services utilization measures and the risk of nursing home admission. Methods: We linked administrative data from the emergency shelter system in Boston, MA to claims data from the Massachusetts Medicaid program. Using the linked data, we identified a cohort of 432 adults aged 55 and above who entered the shelter for the first time (or re-entered after an extended absence) between 2012 and 2015. We estimated Kaplan-Meier survival curves and hazard functions to describe the extent and timing of nursing home admissions in this population following the date of their initial shelter entry and Cox proportional hazards regression models to identify predictors of the risk of nursing home admission. Results: Roughly 12% of the study cohort had a nursing home admission within 4 years of their initial shelter entry and risk of shelter admission was highest in the first few months following shelter entry. Older age, diagnoses indicating alcohol use disorder, greater overall disease burden, and a prior history of nursing home admission were all associated with a higher risk of nursing home admission following shelter entry. Conclusions: Amidst ongoing growth in the number of older homeless adults, our study findings have important implications for efforts to meet the housing and health needs of this population.