Application of simulation modeling to emergency population evacuation

A simulation model was developed to predict with a certain degree of probability the optimal escape routs from the coastal areas of the Rio Grand Valley. Along with that, the model provides information on where traffic bottlenecks could be expected and could assist the authorities in designating official evacuation routes away from the storm. The model provides information about the latest safe evacuation cut off point, percent evacuated, and road capacity availability, in case, the evacuation becomes more risky and the general population must be advised to seek immediate shelter. The simulation model is also able to predict what if situations such as, required warning times to facilitate traffic requirements by areas affected, warning lead times based on storm size and the direction of evacuation and traffic handling capacities of roadways as physical conditions deteriorate.