How secure are national energy systems: A dynamic assessment approach

A self-organizing map (SOM) method is adopted in this paper following the maximum flux principle (MFP) to evaluate the energy security level of 30 countries. An integrated and comprehensive index is proposed, which consists of sixteen indicators spanning three dimensions - energy production, energy consumption and environment. Results show that the energy security level varied significantly from 1.3 to 5.6 among these 30 countries. Based on a cluster analysis of sixteen indicators, the 30 countries can be classified into five categories representing low energy security (China and India), consumption-oriented energy security (many industrialized nations, security based on high and very high energy production (predominantly OPEC members), and high and diversified energy security (Norway). This study also revealed that, during 2001-2012, the countries are struggling to develop a more security energy system. For example, the energy security level of twenty countries improved gradually especially in Kazakhstan and Russia which energy security level increased by more than 0.65. But the energy security of Qatar has decreased by 0.434 from 2001 to 2012. This is closely related to each country's resources endowment, energy technology and national policy. Thus it is necessary to develop a differentiated energy policy system according to each country's economic social, political and resource situations.