Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow

被引:985
|
作者
Pianosi, Francesca [1 ]
Beven, Keith [6 ]
Freer, Jim [3 ]
Hall, Jim W. [4 ]
Rougier, Jonathan [2 ]
Stephenson, David B. [5 ]
Wagener, Thorsten [1 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England
[2] Univ Bristol, Dept Math, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England
[3] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England
[4] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 2JD, England
[5] Univ Exeter, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Exeter EX4 4QJ, Devon, England
[6] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England
[7] Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst, Bristol BS8 1TH, Avon, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
Sensitivity Analysis; Uncertainty Analysis; Calibration; Evaluation; Robust decision-making; IDENTIFY IMPORTANT FACTORS; LARGE-SCALE SIMULATIONS; UNCERTAINTY IMPORTANCE; PARAMETER SENSITIVITY; CLIMATE-CHANGE; STATISTICAL-ANALYSES; IDENTIFICATION; CALIBRATION; CATCHMENT; DESIGN;
D O I
10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.008
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) investigates how the variation in the output of a numerical model can be attributed to variations of its input factors. SA is increasingly being used in environmental modelling for a variety of purposes, including uncertainty assessment, model calibration and diagnostic evaluation, dominant control analysis and robust decision-making. In this paper we review the SA literature with the goal of providing: (i) a comprehensive view of SA approaches also in relation to other methodologies for model identification and application; (ii) a systematic classification of the most commonly used SA methods; (iii) practical guidelines for the application of SA. The paper aims at delivering an introduction to SA for non-specialist readers, as well as practical advice with best practice examples from the literature; and at stimulating the discussion within the community of SA developers and users regarding the setting of good practices and on defining priorities for future research. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
引用
收藏
页码:214 / 232
页数:19
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