Development and validation of a predictive model of exclusive breastfeeding at hospital discharge: Retrospective cohort study

Background: The benefits of breastfeeding for both mother and newborn have been widely demonstrated. However, breastfeeding rates at discharge are lower than recommended, so being able to identify women at risk of not breastfeeding at discharge could allow professionals to prioritise care. Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model of exclusive breastfeeding at hospital discharge. Design: Retrospective cohort study on women who gave birth between 2014 and 2019 in Spain. Data sources: The data source was a questionnaire distributed through the Spanish breastfeeding associations. The development of the predictive model was made on a cohort of 3387 women and was validated on a cohort of 1694 women. A multivariate analysis was performed by means of logistic regression, and predictive ability was determined by areas under the ROC curve (AUC). Results: 80.2% (2717) women exclusively breastfed at discharge in the derivation cohort, and 82.1% (1390) in the validation cohort. The predictive factors in the final model were: maternal age at birth; BMI; number of children; previous breastfeeding; birth plan; induced birth; epidural analgesia; type of birth; prematurity; multiple pregnancy; macrosomia; onset of breastfeeding within the first hour; and skin-to-skin contact. The predictive ability (ROC AUC) in the derivation cohort was 0.76 (CI 95%: 0.74-0.78), while in the validation cohort it was 0.74 (CI 95%: 0.71-0.77). Conclusions: A predictive model of exclusive maternal breastfeeding at hospital discharge has been developed, based on thirteen variables, with satisfactory predictive ability in both the derivation cohort and the validation cohort according to the Swets' criteria. This model can identify women who are at high risk of not breastfeeding at hospital discharge. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.