The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth

被引：20

作者：

Afonso, Antonio ^{[1
]}

Alves, Jose ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Lisbon, ISEG ULisbon, Dept Econ, UECE Res Unit Complex & Econ, R Miguel Lupi 20, P-1249078 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Univ Lisbon, ISEG ULisbon, P-1249078 Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

HACIENDA PUBLICA ESPANOLA-REVIEW OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS | 2015年 / 215期

关键词：

government debt; economic growth; debt thresholds; PUBLIC DEBT; EXPENDITURE;

D O I：

10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.4.1

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study the effect of public debt on economic growth for annual and 5-year average growth rates, as well as the existence of non-linearity effects of debt on growth for 14 European countries from 1970 until 2012. We also consider debt-to-GDP ratio interactions with various subsets of monetary, public finance, institutional and macroeconomic variables. Our results show a maximum negative impact of around -0.04% and -0.03% for each 1% increment of public debt, for annual and 5-year average growth rates, respectively. In addition, we find average debt ratio thresholds of around 75%. Belonging to the Eurozone has a detrimental effect of at least -0.5% for real per capita GDP, and the banking crisis is the most harmful crisis for growth.

引用

页码：9 / 26

页数：18

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