Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty

被引:173
作者
Herman, Jonathan D. [1 ]
Zeff, Harrison B. [2 ]
Reed, Patrick M. [1 ]
Characklis, Gregory W. [2 ]
机构
[1] Cornell Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
[2] Univ N Carolina, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Chapel Hill, NC USA
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
regional water portfolio management; many-objective robust decision making; multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs; EVOLUTIONARY MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION; DECISION-MAKING; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MANAGEMENT; COMPLEX; RISK; RESOURCES; POLICIES; DROUGHT; INFORMATION;
D O I
10.1002/2014WR015338
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
While optimality is a foundational mathematical concept in water resources planning and management, optimal solutions may be vulnerable to failure if deeply uncertain future conditions deviate from those assumed during optimization. These vulnerabilities may produce severely asymmetric impacts across a region, making it vital to evaluate the robustness of management strategies as well as their impacts for regional stakeholders. In this study, we contribute a multistakeholder many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework that blends many-objective search and uncertainty analysis tools to discover key tradeoffs between water supply alternatives and their robustness to deep uncertainties (e.g., population pressures, climate change, and financial risks). The proposed framework is demonstrated for four interconnected water utilities representing major stakeholders in the Research Triangle region of North Carolina, U.S. The utilities supply well over one million customers and have the ability to collectively manage drought via transfer agreements and shared infrastructure. We show that water portfolios for this region that compose optimal tradeoffs (i.e., Pareto-approximate solutions) under expected future conditions may suffer significantly degraded performance with only modest changes in deeply uncertain hydrologic and economic factors. We then use the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) to identify which uncertain factors drive the individual and collective vulnerabilities for the four cooperating utilities. Our framework identifies key stakeholder dependencies and robustness tradeoffs associated with cooperative regional planning, which are critical to understanding the tensions between individual versus regional water supply goals. Cooperative demand management was found to be the key factor controlling the robustness of regional water supply planning, dominating other hydroclimatic and economic uncertainties through the 2025 planning horizon. Results suggest that a modest reduction in the projected rate of demand growth (from approximately 3% per year to 2.4%) will substantially improve the utilities' robustness to future uncertainty and reduce the potential for regional tensions. The proposed multistakeholder MORDM framework offers critical insights into the risks and challenges posed by rising water demands and hydrological uncertainties, providing a planning template for regions now forced to confront rapidly evolving water scarcity risks. Key Points We advance many-objective robust decision making for multiple stakeholders Stakeholders' robustness exhibits dependencies, vulnerabilities, and tradeoffs A modest reduction in demand growth rate insulates against future uncertainty
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页码:7692 / 7713
页数:22
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