Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China

被引：221

作者：

Wang, Peng ^{[1
]}

Dai, Han-cheng ^{[2
]}

Ren, Song-yan ^{[1
]}

Zhao, Dai-qing ^{[1
]}

Masui, Toshihiko ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Guangzhou Inst Energy Convers, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[2] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Social & Environm Syst Div, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

来源：

ENERGY | 2015年 / 79卷

关键词：

Carbon emission trading; General equilibrium model; Carbon trading price; CGE ANALYSIS; BOTTOM-UP; ENERGY; DEMAND; COST;

D O I：

10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.009

中图分类号：

O414.1 [热力学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study analyzed the economic impacts of carbon ETS (emission trading scheme) policy among four energy intensive sectors in Guangdong province with a two-region dynamic CGE model. Five cases are considered to achieve Copenhagen target towards 2020 in Guangdong, including a reference case, two cases under different carbon emission constraints without carbon ETS, and two cases with ETS. The simulation results show that carbon price and economic impacts are closely related to both emission constraints and ETS. In the scenario that overshoots Copenhagen target and does not consider ETS, carbon mitigation cost of refinery and iron & steel sectors would be relatively higher whereas that of power and cement sectors would be lower, and the GDP (gross domestic production) loss would be 1.4%. On the contrary, with ETS implemented, the trading carbon price would be 38 USD (US Dollar)/ton-CO2, creating a carbon market of around 1 billion USD. Furthermore, ETS could significantly reduce the mitigation cost for the whole economy. The GDP of Guangdong province would recover by 2.6 billion USD. In addition, the economic output and employment of sectors with would be affected compared to the scenario without ETS. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：212 / 227

页数：16

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