Influence of early winter upward wave activity flux on midwinter circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere

Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data the authors show that the November-December averaged stratospheric eddy heat flux is strongly anticorrelated with the January-February averaged eddy heat flux in the midlatitude stratosphere and troposphere. This finding further emphasizes differences between early and midwinter stratospheric wave flux behavior, which has recently been found in long-term variations. Analysis suggests that the intraseasonal anticorrelation of stratospheric heat fluxes results from changes in the upward wave propagation in the troposphere. Stronger (weaker) upward wave fluxes in early winter lead to weaker (stronger) upward wave fluxes from the troposphere during midwinter. Also, enhanced equatorward wave refraction during midwinter (due to the stronger polar night jet) is associated with weak heat flux in the early winter. It is suggested that the effect of enhanced midwinter upward wave flux from the troposphere in the years with weak early winter heat flux overcompensates the effect of increased equatorward wave refraction in midwinter, leading to a net increase of midwinter upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere.