An index to measure the effects of temperature change on trophic interactions

Experimental studies document the fact that environmental temperature changes can affect the timing of interactions in many consumer-resource systems through altered, or shifted, phenologies of the species involved. We develop a simple mathematical model that shows one method to measure, quantitatively, the magnitude of the shift. Under different temperature regimes we compute the intersection of two regions in a joint phenology space: the region where temporal interactions can occur and the region where particular-sized predators consume particular-sized prey. The area of the intersection provides a numerical value for measuring the effective interaction. A comparison of the areas for different temperature histories defines an index, or yardstick, for quantitatively assessing the effects of temperature variations on phenological shifts. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.