In order to safeguard society, economy and ecological environment sustainable development harmoniously, utilize and protect water resources reasonably, researches on water resources carrying capacity should be carried on. Based on the structure of water resources carrying capacity system, as well as the water resources socio - economic, specific conditions of ecological and environmental development in research region, model of sustainable water resources carrying capacity based on GPESH in research region is built. The status of water resources carrying capacity in 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030 is analyzed and forecast in research region, the outcomes show that water resources carrying capacity in research region can load before 2030, but that is being transferred into development of not carrying.