A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force

被引：3
作者：
Kuchera, Evan L. [1 ]
Rentschler, Scott A. [1 ]
Creighton, Glenn A. [1 ]
Rugg, Steven A. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Offutt Air Force Base, 16th Weather Squadron,101 Nelson Dr, Bellevue, NE 68113 USA
来源：
ATMOSPHERE | 2021年 / 12卷 / 06期
基金：
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词：
ensemble prediction systems; ensemble post-processing; ensemble products; forecast uncertainty; POOR MANS ENSEMBLE; PREDICTION SYSTEM; HIGH-RESOLUTION; WEATHER PREDICTION; MODEL; PROBABILITY; MESOSCALE; GUIDANCE; DESIGN; IMPACT;
D O I：
10.3390/atmos12060677
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why USAF capabilities evolved in the context of USAF requirements and limitations. The convergence of time-lagged convection-allowing ensembles with inline diagnostics, algorithms to estimate the sub-grid scale uncertainty of critical forecasting variables, and the distillation of large quantities of ensemble information into decision-relevant products has led to the acceptance of probabilistic environmental forecast information and widespread reliance on ensembles in USAF operations worldwide.
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页数：33
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