Nordleden - A long term scenario project for analysis of an integrated Nordic energy system

This paper reports an ongoing study of the energy systems of the four Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The objective of the study is to investigate the benefits from a further integrated Nordic energy system especially for controlling emissions of CO2. In this case we refer to integration as harmonised energy/environmental policies including the possibility to jointly reach CO2 emission targets, and free trade of gas and electricity among the countries. The project is done in co-operation with national environmental and energy authorities, and utilities from all four countries. During the initial phase of the project three main scenarios were defined. The first one, analysed here, reflects conventional wisdom regarding the development of the energy system's environment. The second scenario illustrates a case with more prominent market orientation, while the third scenario describes a case where hi-tech local societies are dominant. Scenarios two and three will be studied later during the project. The results show how the various policies mentioned above influence energy supply, costs, CO2 emissions, and optimal trade patterns for electricity, gas and CO2 permits.