A new risk evaluation method for software development project

In the risk evaluation of software development project, it difficult to quantify risk of software development project accurately due to uncertainty and illegibility of software development risk. Consequently, we present a new method to evaluate the aggregative risks in software development using fuzzy set theory -group hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on previous researches. This method introduces the triangular fuzzy number to represent experts' judgment information. The key to proposed method is: in view of different effect on cost, schedule. and performance, the loss on the three dimensions are assessed respectively. Based on the assessed values above, the aggregative loss value is obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. This algorithm should make the assessment of loss more accurate. On the other hand, simple defuzzifcation algorithm is adopted to simplify complicated operations of triangular fuzzy number. Conclusions are as follows: group hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is valid and reflects the risk characteristics in implementing software development. The proposed method has the following advantages: (1) It combines subjective analysis with quantitative analysis effectively. (2) It takes into account effect on quality, cost, schedule and make information integrated. (3) It does not take a large amount of time to calculate.