Identifying HbA1c trajectories and modifiable risk factors of trajectories in 5-to 9-year-olds with recent-onset type 1 diabetes from the United States

Objective To explore glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) patterns in 5- to 9-year-olds in the recent-onset period of type 1 diabetes and identify parent psychosocial factors that may predict children's HbA1c trajectory using a prospective, longitudinal design. Research design and methods We measured family demographics and parent psychosocial factors at baseline. We collected HbA1c levels from children every 3 months for up to 30 months. Deriving several features around HbA1c trends, we used k-means clustering to group trajectories and linear and logistic regressions to identify parent psychosocial predictors of children's HbA1c trajectories. Results The final cohort included 106 families (48 boys, mean child age 7.50 +/- 1.35 years and mean diabetes duration 4.71 +/- 3.19 months). We identified four unique HbA1c trajectories in children: high increasing, high stable, intermediate increasing and low stable. Compared to a low stable trajectory, increasing parent-reported hypoglycaemia fear total score was associated with decreased odds of having a high stable or intermediate increasing trajectory. Increasing parent-reported diabetes-specific family conflict total score was associated with increased odds of having a high stable or intermediate increasing trajectory. Conclusions We are the first to identify distinct HbA1c trajectories in 5- to 9-year-olds with recent-onset type 1 diabetes as well as parent psychosocial factors that may predict high stable or increasing trajectories and could represent future treatment targets.