Effect of environmental prediction uncertainty on target detection and tracking

Past attempts to use acoustic sensor performance predictions, typically probability of detection as a function of range, in naval undersea warfare tactical decision aids such as trackers and mission planning tools have met with great difficulty. These efforts have been hampered by the uncertainty often inherent in these predictions. In some cases, the use of incorrect predictions produced results or recommendations that were worse than not using the predictions at all. The goal of the work reported in this paper is to develop a Track-Before-Detect (TBD) system that accounts for this uncertainty and has the following features: (1) It produces results are at least as good as those obtained with no performance prediction information. (2) It produces a significant improvement in performance in some situations. In this paper we describe an extension of a TBD system called the Likelihood Ratio Tracker (LRT) that incorporates uncertainty in performance prediction. We have run LRT on data that simulate a multistatic active sonar detection system similar to one in use by the Navy. In these simulated cases, we have shown that using performance prediction improves LRT tracking and detection performance even in the presence of large prediction errors.