Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

被引:68
作者
Beven, Keith [1 ,2 ]
Cloke, Hannah [3 ]
Pappenberger, Florian [4 ,5 ,6 ]
Lamb, Rob [7 ]
Hunter, Neil [8 ]
机构
[1] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England
[2] Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden
[3] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Reading, Berks, England
[4] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England
[5] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England
[6] Hehai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[7] JBA Trust, Skipton BD23 3AE, N Yorkshire, England
[8] JBA Consulting, Skipton BD23 3AE, N Yorkshire, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
hyperresolution models; epistemic uncertainties; models of everywhere; communicating uncertainty; flood risk; STOCHASTIC-CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS; RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESSES; PHYSICALLY BASED MODEL; HETEROGENEOUS HILLSLOPES; TIME DISTRIBUTIONS; FLOOD RISK; SCALE; GROUNDWATER; UNCERTAINTY; TRANSPORT;
D O I
10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future.
引用
收藏
页码:25 / 35
页数:11
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