Forecast of Chile's tourism demand based on linear and non-linear seasonal models

被引：3

作者：

Colther, Cristian ^{[1
]}

Arriagada-Millaman, Ailin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Austral Chile, Valdivia, Chile

来源：

PASOS-REVISTA DE TURISMO Y PATRIMONIO CULTURAL | 2021年 / 19卷 / 02期

关键词：

ARIMA models; Tourism demand; Short-term estimation; Non-linear series; Seasonal series; ARRIVALS;

D O I：

10.25145/j.pasos.2021.19.021

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

TIn this paper, the Chilean tourism demand experienced during the period 2000-2018 has been modelled using a linear regression model with dichotomous variables (MRL) and an ARIMA model with a seasonal component (SARIMA). The results show that the SARIMA approach is more effective in replicating the non-stationary, non-linear behaviour and the presence of seasonality in the series, with the forecasts obtained from this model presenting a low rate of error, in this case -5.6% for outbound tourism and -5.9% for inbound tourism. In consequence, this approach may be an effective tool for forecasting forecast tourism demand in the short term, and support for planning and management in the sector in the face of fluctuations in tourism demand.

引用

页码：323 / 336

页数：14

共 31 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2018, EST

[2]

Box G.E.P., 1974, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, V23, P158

[3] A Seasonal ARIMA Model of Tourism Forecasting: The Case of Taiwan [J].