A system dynamics approach to modelling the management of the increased prediabetic prevalence of the South African population

The increasing prevalence of prediabetes in South Africa is of great concern. Due to the complex nature and non-linear interactions that exist within the health care system to address prediabetic health care, a system dynamics-based approach is suggested as an appropriate analysis tool to evaluate and gain insight into the dominant factors that influence the effective management of prediabetes. This is intended to subsequently identify more effective and efficient prediabetic policy and intervention strategies. A six-dynamic hypothesis is proposed in the form of a causal loop diagram that was used in the development of a system dynamics model. In the developed system dynamics model, five interventions strategies, identified as scenarios, were tested. Finally, the increased screening of high-risk individuals for prediabetes was identified as the most effective intervention strategy for reducing the prediabetic population.