Artificial neural networks for non-stationary time series

被引:70
作者
Kim, TY
Oh, KJ [1 ]
Kim, CH
Do, JD
机构
[1] Hansung Univ, Div Business Adm, Seoul, South Korea
[2] Keimyung Univ, Dept Stat, Taegu, South Korea
[3] Korea Deposit Insurance Corp, Seoul, South Korea
基金
新加坡国家研究基金会;
关键词
non-stationary time series; overfitting; artificial neural networks; asymptotic stationary; autoregressive model;
D O I
10.1016/j.neucom.2004.04.002
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要
The use of artificial neural networks (ANN) has received increasing attention in the analysis and prediction of financial time series. Stationarity of the observed financial time series is the basic underlying assumption in the practical application of ANN on financial time series. In this paper, we will investigate whether it is feasible to relax the stationarity condition to non-stationary time series. Our result discusses the range of complexities caused by non-stationary behavior and finds that overfitting by ANN could be useful in the analysis of such non-stationary complex financial time series. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:439 / 447
页数:9
相关论文
共 9 条
[1]  
Anderson T. W., 1971, STAT ANAL TIME SERIE
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1996, NEURAL NETWORKS FINA
[3]   Modelling non-linear moving average processes using neural networks with error feedback: An application to implied volatility forecasting [J].
Burgess, AN ;
Refenes, APN .
SIGNAL PROCESSING, 1999, 74 (01) :89-99
[4]   Non-parametric data selection for neural learning in non-stationary time series [J].
Deco, G ;
Neuneier, R ;
Schurmann, B .
NEURAL NETWORKS, 1997, 10 (03) :401-407
[5]   A comparative study of neural network and Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling in time series prediction [J].
Ho, SL ;
Xie, M ;
Goh, TN .
COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING, 2002, 42 (2-4) :371-375
[6]   An intelligent approach to time series identification by a neural network-driven decision tree classifier [J].
Lee, KC ;
Oh, SB .
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, 1996, 17 (03) :183-197
[7]  
Patterson D.W., 1996, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NE
[9]   Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model [J].
Zhang, GP .
NEUROCOMPUTING, 2003, 50 :159-175